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Electric vehicles (EVs) could soon become a more affordable choice for African drivers than gasoline cars. A new study published in the journal Nature Energy suggests that by the year 2040, electric vehicles will likely be the better economic option for many people across the continent. This prediction relies heavily on the use of solar power systems that do not connect to the main electrical grid. Currently, electric vehicles make up a very small part of the car market in Africa. In 2025, only about one percent of new cars sold were electric. This slow growth is due to several major problems. Many areas have unreliable power lines, there are few public charging stations, and getting a loan to buy a car is very expensive. Some experts once thought that gasoline cars would remain the only practical choice in Africa until at least the year 2050.
However, the financial case for electric vehicles is becoming stronger. As the technology improves and manufacturing becomes more efficient, the cost of these vehicles is dropping. The researchers in this study argue that electric scooters, cars, larger trucks, and even minibuses could become affordable in most African nations by 2040. Bessie Noll, a senior researcher at ETH Zürich who helped write the study, stated that electric vehicles have serious economic potential in most African countries in the not-so-distant future.
The research team looked at the total cost of ownership. This calculation measures how much it costs to own a vehicle over its entire lifetime. The team included the initial price of the car, the cost of borrowing money like interest on a loan, and all expenses for fuel or electricity needed to charge the vehicle. They intentionally left out costs related to government rules, such as taxes or import fees. Their goal was to look only at the core economic factors that a consumer must pay.
Batteries and the vehicles they power are getting cheaper every year. This is happening because of better manufacturing methods and higher production volumes. The study concludes that in most scenarios and locations across Africa, electric vehicles will likely cost less to own than comparable gasoline vehicles by 2040. They are also expected to be cheaper than vehicles that run on synthetic fuels.
Electric two-wheelers, such as scooters and motorcycles, could become the cheaper option even sooner. Because they use smaller and less expensive batteries, these vehicles are predicted to be economically competitive by the end of this decade. Christian Moretti, a researcher at ETH Zürich and the Paul Scherrer Institute, noted that one of the most challenging segments for electric vehicles to compete in will be small cars.