What If the Soviets Won the Moon Race?

Imagine a world where the Soviet Union beat the United States to the moon. In this alternate version of 1969, Soviet cosmonaut Alexei Leonov becomes the first human to walk on the lunar surface. This event marks a massive victory for the Soviet Union. It also starts a long and intense space race. Both countries keep exploring deeper into the solar system. This idea is the main story behind the Apple TV series For All Mankind. The show has been on air since 2019. It looks at how NASA and the US government might have reacted if they fell behind during the Cold War. However, the show does not show the Soviet point of view. This changed on May 29, 2023. A new spin-off show called Star City premiered on Apple TV. It tells the story of the Soviet space agency’s hard work to beat the US. It gives a different look at the events leading up to the first season of For All Mankind.

The alternate history in both shows matches a real time in our past. That time was full of tension and spying. It was also a time when humans achieved amazing things. These shows show one possible answer to the question of "what if." But can real history help us understand what might have actually happened? This article looks at whether Soviet cosmonauts could have reached the moon before the US in 1969.

Many people know the story of the space race. You are likely familiar with the images of Neil Armstrong. He took the first steps on the moon with the Apollo 11 crew. Armstrong said, "That’s one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind." These words were revolutionary. He was celebrating not just his country’s success, but the progress of all humanity. This happened during the Cold War. It was a conflict between the US and the nations behind the Iron Curtain.

It is easy to forget how close the Soviets came to winning. The first artificial objects in space were Soviet crafts. Sputnik 1 and Sputnik 2 launched in 1957. In 1961, Yuri Gagarin became the first human in space.

Despite these early wins, the Soviets did not have the same focus as NASA. The US aimed for the moon through the Apollo program with clear determination. The Soviet space program had a confusing administration. They managed many projects that competed for money.

Dr. Thomas Ellis explained this to HistoryExtra in 2021. He said the Soviet system was complex. It had internal rivalry, unfair favoritism, and wasted resources. To win, the Soviet project would have needed to act "like the American image of it."

Star City shows a version of history where these problems were fixed. This allowed the Soviets to win. The lead character is played by Rhys Ifans. He is the chief designer and the main force behind the moon race. In season 2 of For All Mankind, it is suggested his character was based on Sergei Korolev. Korolev was the real-life leader behind the rockets for Sputnik and Gagarin.

Korolev died in 1966. This was three years before the US reached the moon. Jonny Wilkes wrote for BBC History Revealed in 2021 that Korolev was crucial. "Had he lived longer, Korolev would have continued to be a crucial cog in the machine," Wilkes said. He would have helped with crewed space flight. He would also have developed the N1 rocket. This was the Soviet version of the Saturn V.

Star City imagines a universe where Korolev, or a similar leader, lived longer. In this universe, the Soviets beat the US to the moon.

Behind the science and launches, an ideological war was happening. This conflict was about competing beliefs. Capitalism and communism were on opposite sides. Economic and social systems shaped how the US and USSR approached the space race.

If the Soviets won, would the Cold War have changed?

"There would have been huge celebrations in the Soviet Union," said Ellis. There would have been parades and ceremonies. These would link the space heroes to the Communist Party. The party would look like the guiding force.

Such a victory would give the Soviets a huge boost in prestige. This would be felt at home and abroad. It would be a win in the political and economic battle against capitalism. The US was the main symbol of capitalism.

Alexei Leonov might be in the history books. He was the first to do a spacewalk. Many see him as Armstrong’s Soviet counterpart. He would be known as the first man on the moon.

"Like the Apollo astronauts, these lunar cosmonauts would have followed a hero’s welcome in the homeland," Ellis continued. "They would have gone on a victory lap tour around the world."

Meanwhile, Americans would feel the sting of defeat. This public loss would make the US government look weak. "Publicly, there would have been gracious congratulations and invites to the White House," Ellis added. "Privately, President Nixon would have been seething." This defeat might have given US politicians an excuse to cut NASA’s budget. They might have called space racing a propaganda show for communists.

For All Mankind shows a different path. In the show, the race never ends. Americans and Soviets try to beat each other’s records.

"The Soviets would undoubtedly have continued exploring space," said Ellis. "They would have spent subsequent decades attempting to press their advantage."

We see this in For All Mankind. The race gets bigger after the landing. There are attempts to build moon bases. There are plans to go to Mars and beyond.

Ellis suggested these goals would change the political landscape. It would change the later Cold War if Soviet money went into this fast-paced race.

In the short term, the success would boost Soviet propaganda. The moon landing would be a win for communism worldwide.

"A successful moonshot might well have provided a new potent diplomatic and propaganda tool," commented Ellis. It could increase membership for communist parties in developing nations.

However, in the long run, it might lead to the Soviet Union’s end. "Prestige is powerful, but it wouldn’t have invalidated the economic and political weaknesses," Ellis said. Keeping their lead would show deep problems in the Soviet economy. It is hard to imagine the moon landing stopping the collapse.

Star City and For All Mankind show us what might have been. They show a world where the Soviets won in 1969. Today’s world would be very different.

Star City premiered on May 29, 2023, on Apple TV. For All Mankind seasons 1–5 are available on the service.

Matthew Trask is a writer and journalist.