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The winter of 2026 is being remembered across the Western United States as the year the snow never arrived. This historic absence of snow has created a crisis that threatens water supplies, wildfire safety, and the long-term future of the region. Many ski resorts tried to stay open by using machines to create artificial snow, but most were forced to close their operations much earlier than normal. Now, fire officials and water managers are deeply concerned about the approaching summer. The region is facing a severe shortage of natural water storage, which usually protects communities and farms during the hot, dry months. Without this snow, the future looks precarious.
In the author's hometown of Boise, Idaho, temperatures reached the low 80s Fahrenheit in mid-March. This unusual heat was part of a larger weather pattern that sent temperatures soaring to 105 degrees Fahrenheit in Phoenix. Normally, water managers and hydrologists expect mountain snowpacks to reach their peak around April 1. These snowpacks act as natural reservoirs that farms and communities depend on throughout the scorching summer. The amount of liquid water contained within the snow, known as the snow water equivalent, is seen as a reliable indicator, or bellwether, for the water supplies available in the coming months.
However, the water year of 2026 has been anything but ordinary. In fact, this snow drought has few historical comparisons in the recorded past. Data collected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Conservation Service reveals a stark reality. Out of approximately 70 river basins across the Western United States, only five are at or above the median snow water equivalent for this time of year, based on the average from 1991 to 2020. Most of these few healthy basins are clustered around the Yellowstone region in western Wyoming and eastern Idaho.
By contrast, 11 basins have less than 25% of the 1991-2020 median, and more than half are currently below 50%. The headwaters of critically important rivers, including the Colorado, the Columbia, and the Missouri, are peppered with basins that are far below historical averages. Other important measures of snow water storage and ecosystem health, including which areas currently have snow cover and how long that snow has remained, also point toward reserves that are significantly lower than in recent years. This widespread depletion threatens the foundational water security of the entire region.
Just because the Western United States is experiencing a snow drought does not mean it is completely dry. The region has actually received precipitation, but the temperatures have been high enough since the start of the water year in October that much of what normally would have fallen as snow has instead fallen as rain. The West experienced a very warm December at all elevations except the highest peaks, yet strong storms also drenched large parts of the region. In Washington state, heavy rain triggered flooding and melted the existing snowpack before it could accumulate.
Temperatures in January were less extreme but still warmer than historical averages. However, the precipitation in January was far below the 1991-2020 average throughout much of the region. February brought precipitation conditions closer to historical averages, but the temperatures remained much warmer than normal. Therefore, the Western United States received a triple whammy of bad weather. Two of the three critical months for snow accumulation were too warm, causing snow to fall as rain, and the third month was too dry to compensate for the loss. This combination of high heat and low snowfall created a perfect storm for water shortages.
So what does this mean for the region's water supplies and the flow of its rivers? A recent assessment of drought conditions from the National Integrated Drought Information System suggests that 2026 will be a very tight year for water supplies. Water managers in Wyoming and Washington are already signaling that some holders of water rights can expect to receive less than their full allotment. These rights holders include cities, irrigation districts, individual farms, and industries that can take limited amounts of water from rivers, canals, and aquifers. It is not unreasonable to expect other states to soon follow suit.
Throughout the Western United States, water rights are administered according to the Doctrine of Prior Appropriation. Under this legal framework, those who hold the oldest legitimate claims to water from a river, reservoir, or aquifer are entitled to receive their allotted share first. Junior water rights holders, who may be at risk of receiving less than their full allotment of water, likely face difficult decisions ahead. These decisions will involve the planting and management of their crops. The challenges are further compounded by the likelihood of increases in fertilizer and transportation costs associated with the ongoing war in Iran. This adds an economic layer of difficulty to an already severe environmental crisis.
In the Colorado River Basin, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's most probable forecast indicates that water levels in Lake Powell will fall below the minimum power pool elevation in December 2026. This is bad news for power supplies because, below that specific level, the Glen Canyon Dam cannot produce hydroelectric power. The dam currently contributes power for millions of customers across seven states. The loss of this power generation capacity could have significant economic and practical consequences for the region. Without this energy, infrastructure and daily life in the West would face substantial disruption.
Another major concern is whether this historic snow drought is setting up the West for a disastrous fire season. This remains an open question that experts are closely watching. Rain has ensured that moisture is available now for plants to grow, but the lack of a snowpack that normally keeps meltwater flowing through the summer raises concerns. If the snow disappears early, those plants may dry out, leaving the landscape ready to burn. The transition from lush spring growth to a parched landscape could happen with alarming speed.
Fire is a historically important feature of the forest and rangeland ecosystems of the West. These ecosystems are, to some degree, adapted to large swings in conditions from year to year and season to season. Because precipitation across much of the West is close to historical averages, there is still snow in some of the highest-elevation mountains. Additionally, at lower elevations, some of the precipitation that fell as rain likely remains in the soils, providing a temporary buffer. These factors offer a slight hope that the fire risk might not be as catastrophic as initially feared.
However, the final outcome will depend heavily on weather conditions in the late spring and summer. The amount of rain that falls and how hot and dry the conditions become will play critical roles in determining the shape that forests and rangelands will take for the fire season. If temperatures rise sharply and rain fails to arrive, the moisture from the spring rains may evaporate quickly, creating a perfect storm for wildfires. The window of opportunity for nature to absorb this moisture is closing rapidly as the summer heat intensifies.
The record-low snowpack may be a harbinger of what a warmer future will look like in the region. Many researchers have investigated how climate change will influence snowpacks and water supplies throughout the Western United States, but questions and critical challenges remain. Among the most pressing questions is this: in years like 2026, with near-normal precipitation but low snowpack, are there difficult-to-observe stores of water in the deeper subsurface that can help buffer against the loss of snow for periods of time? That is one of several questions my colleagues and I have been working on to understand the hidden reservoirs beneath the ground. Understanding these hidden stores is vital for predicting long-term resilience.
This year's snow drought presents a timely, albeit high-stakes, stress test for the West. It forces the region to confront the realities of a changing climate where traditional patterns of snow and rain are shifting. Everyone will be watching to see how the West adapts to these new conditions. The decisions made by water managers, farmers, and policymakers in the coming months will shape the region's resilience for years to come. The interplay between a warming atmosphere and water resources is becoming increasingly complex, requiring constant monitoring and adaptation. As the summer approaches, the focus will shift from the lack of snow to the management of the water that remains, and the prevention of disasters that could result from the dry landscape.