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The science fiction book and movie Project Hail Mary have become very popular. They tell the story of an astronaut on a dangerous mission who must save his planet and another far away. In the story, he meets an alien being, and they must quickly decide if they are friends or enemies. They also need to find a way to communicate, despite their completely different methods. This creates an exciting and tense space story. However, new advances in astronomy and artificial intelligence might make real-life alien contact less dramatic.
Seth Shostak, a senior astronomer for the SETI Institute, believes that our first contact with aliens might not happen between humans and aliens directly. Instead, it could occur between artificial intelligence systems. He thinks the beings we meet will be machines, not living things. Shostak noted on a science podcast that he guesses the aliens are machines because that is what humanity is doing as well. We are just starting to build machines capable of performing tasks humans used to do. He is certain that in 100 years, the smartest thing on Earth will be a machine, not a soft, living body. Therefore, if we hear aliens, he suspects they will be machines too.
For more than 65 years, astronomers have been searching for radio signals from alien worlds. Usually, they build large receivers to monitor many channels simultaneously. The ability to observe these signals has improved drastically, following a trend known as Moore's Law. This law states that computer power doubles approximately every two years. Monitoring millions of channels requires significant computing power. Shostak is confident that artificial intelligence will make the search for extraterrestrial intelligence much faster.
We are already seeing this happen. In November, the Breakthrough Listen Initiative shared positive news: an AI system built with NVIDIA could process telescope data more than 600 times faster than before. This new system also identified the correct signals 7% more often and made fewer mistakes. This speed allows scientists to analyze vast amounts of space data that were previously too difficult to examine.
This new technology does more than just find known signals; it helps us discover strange signals we have never seen before. Andrew Siemion, the lead scientist for Breakthrough Listen, stated that this technology allows us to identify new types of signals. An advanced civilization might use short bursts or unique signal shapes that we have not even imagined. This AI system can learn to find patterns that a human might miss.
A few years ago, another team used a computer program to find signals that other systems had overlooked. While later checks did not prove the signals were from aliens, the method demonstrated its potential. AI tools can also help solve other challenges. For instance, space weather can scramble alien signals. New software capable of pattern recognition might locate the signal hidden within the noise. This is crucial because natural space events often resemble the signals we are searching for.
AI models could also help us understand messages once we find them. However, Shostak focuses less on deciphering the specific words. He says the most important part is simply knowing the signal is of technological origin. Even if we never know exactly what the aliens are saying, knowing they exist is fascinating. He compares learning the message to archaeologists deciphering ancient Egyptian writing. To understand the writing, many people must work together. He believes we should apply the same collaborative approach to alien messages.
Douglas Vakoch, president of METI International, has studied the problem of decoding messages for a long time. He believes AI can assist with both finding and decoding, but humans must still lead the process. Vakoch explained that when humans try to find patterns, we often miss important elements because we do not explicitly list our rules. AI forces us to be very clear about how we solve problems. Learning how AI solves problems can reveal where we made mistakes, potentially showing us we missed something critical and need to change our approach.
In Vakoch's view, finding a message is only half the work. A bigger challenge will be understanding what that message means. Humans will still need to play a role even as AI becomes smarter. Decoding a message from aliens will be confusing. While AI might help find patterns that humans miss, people will still need to figure out the meaning.
How long will it take to find aliens? More than 20 years ago, Shostak predicted we would find evidence by 2025. For 15 years, he has been betting a cup of coffee on this outcome. He now says he might have to pay up. "Next time I see you, I'll buy you a cup of coffee," he said. They have not found them yet. Perhaps it was wishful thinking, but it was based on how fast the experiments were improving.
Perhaps astronomers just need more time to leverage Moore's Law and AI. It might take another 20 years or even 200 to make the story of Project Hail Mary a reality. The search continues with new tools that were impossible a few decades ago.
The story Project Hail Mary contains many scientific ideas that align with real astronomy. In the story, stars face a strange infection that spreads between them. The author, Andy Weir, had to bend the rules of physics for this plot. The good news is that real physics rules out this specific threat.
Two stars in the story, Tau Ceti and 40 Eridani A, are on NASA's list of stars to watch. Tau Ceti might have planets where life could exist. 40 Eridani A is famous in Star Trek as the home of Mr. Spock. In the story, the main character travels to Tau Ceti at nearly the speed of light. Thanks to Einstein's theory of relativity, the trip feels like it takes less than four years, even though the star is 12 light-years away. The astronaut sleeps during the trip. In reality, researchers are studying how to put astronauts to sleep for long space journeys.
While the threats in the book are fictional, the technology in the story is becoming real. As AI gets stronger, the line between fiction and fact grows thinner. The journey to find aliens might not look like the movie, but the chance to discover something new is stronger than ever.