The 'Merzoni' Alliance: Reshaping Europe Through a German-Italian Partnership

The term 'Merzoni' is not yet a standard fixture in European political discourse, yet the alliance it describes is rapidly gaining critical importance. This strategic partnership is forged between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. On the surface, these two leaders appear to be unlikely allies, separated by different political histories and distinct national interests. However, their working relationship is quietly, yet decisively, altering the balance of power within the European Union (EU). A clear indicator of this significant shift is a joint policy paper authored by Merz and Meloni. This document is scheduled to be presented to other EU member states at an informal summit planned for February 12, 2026. The paper explicitly urges major reforms designed to make the European Union more competitive on the global stage.

This political union emerged from practical necessity, yet it serves the specific interests of both leaders while offering potential benefits to the entire European Union.

The center of gravity in European politics has shifted multiple times since the conclusion of World War II. For many years, influence was primarily exerted through the relationship between France and Germany. These two nations represent the two largest economies within the European Union. The United Kingdom's role was historically limited by its late entry into the European project and its divided domestic sentiments regarding the EU. The UK's influence ceased entirely following the 2016 referendum, a vote that resulted in the country's departure from the union, an event widely known as Brexit.

For nearly a decade after Brexit, European politics revolved around the alliance between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. This partnership was affectionately dubbed 'Merkron.' Merkel's careful, pragmatic style combined effectively with Macron's charisma and his grand visions for European unity. Together, their leadership guided the EU through the challenges of Brexit, the first presidency of Donald Trump, and the global pandemic caused by COVID-19.

However, the geopolitical landscape has changed dramatically. Merkel left office in December 2021, ending her long tenure. Simultaneously, Macron has faced significant political struggles within his own country. Diplomats and journalists sometimes describe him as a European 'Cassandra.' This metaphor suggests that while he offers correct and prescient warnings about global instability, he struggles to gather sufficient political support at home or across Europe to address the problems he identifies.

The era of 'Merkron' concluded just as Europe faced a succession of major crises. These challenges include Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, unpredictable policy shifts from the United States, escalating pressures from climate change, persistent migration challenges, and the collapse of old arms-control agreements. The comfortable post-Cold War belief that peace in Europe was permanent has now vanished completely.

The end of the 'Merkron' era coincided with myriad crises confronting Europe, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, current U.S. unpredictability, growing climate pressures, never-stopping migration tensions, and the collapse of arms-control regimes.

Into this political vacuum stepped Chancellor Merz and Prime Minister Meloni. At first glance, they present an odd pairing. Friedrich Merz is a German conservative who strongly supports close ties with the United States and promotes free-market economics. The title of his 2008 book, 'Dare More Capitalism,' effectively summarizes his agenda. It signals a clear move away from the cautious centrism of the Merkel years toward a more aggressive pro-market position. Merz also insists that Germany must rebuild its military strength. This marks a major departure from decades of German and European reluctance toward such a move.

Giorgia Meloni, meanwhile, rose to power from Italy's nationalist political right. Her party, Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), has historical roots connected to supporters of the fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. Yet, as prime minister, she has demonstrated considerable political skill. She has repositioned herself as a responsible and largely successful European leader. Meloni has maintained strong support for Ukraine and continued cooperation with the EU. This has significantly reduced the concerns many observers held before she assumed power. She has also skillfully built strong ties with Washington, D.C., including with the political camp of former President Donald Trump. Overall, she has demonstrated successful strategic flexibility.

Critics label her opportunistic, while admirers call her pragmatic. Regardless of the label, Meloni has mastered the art of political adaptation. She has become a bridge between nationalist politics and mainstream European governance.

What unites Merz and Meloni is not primarily a shared ideology, but rather necessity. Germany remains Europe's economic engine, but it needs reliable partners to push the continent toward stronger defense and economic competitiveness. Italy, in turn, desires more influence and credibility at the very center of European decision-making.

Both governments now frequently discuss 'strategic autonomy.' This concept means that Europe must be able to defend itself and protect its interests even if the United States becomes an unreliable partner. The Merz-Meloni joint paper reportedly states this clearly: 'Continuing on the current path is not an option. Europe must act now.'

Historically, European unity has often grown stronger in response to crisis. For example, Brexit increased pro-EU sentiment on the European mainland. Similarly, Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine revived cooperation within both NATO and the EU.

Now, the actions and rhetoric of former U.S. President Donald Trump have delivered a shock to European political thinking. Trump has suggested abandoning NATO defense commitments, threatened new trade tariffs against Europe, and questioned long-standing territorial arrangements. This has created a deep sense of uncertainty among European allies.

Recent opinion surveys show overwhelming European public support for stronger EU defense cooperation and greater unity against global threats. For leaders like Merz and Meloni, this situation creates significant political space. They can now pursue policies that would have seemed unthinkable just a decade ago. These policies include major military buildups, deeper defense integration between member states, new industrial protection measures, and stricter rules on migration.

The most dramatic change is arguably occurring in Germany. For decades, Berlin avoided taking any military leadership role in Europe. It was haunted by the history of World War II and sheltered under U.S. security guarantees. That era is now definitively ending. German officials openly discuss rearmament, European defense readiness, and long-term strategic competition.

The timing feels urgent. In September 2025, Chancellor Merz framed Russia's ongoing aggression as a direct attack on European security and unity. He stated plainly, 'We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.'

The new German-Italian action plan significantly strengthens cooperation on defense, cybersecurity, and strategic industries. Both governments stress their continued loyalty to the NATO alliance while also pushing for a much stronger independent European military capacity. The idea of a future European defense force, once dismissed as a fantasy, is now taken seriously in high-level policy discussions. For instance, Rome is reportedly planning a major weapons deal with the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall. This deal could be worth up to 20 billion euros. It would include hundreds of advanced armored vehicles and new-generation tanks. It would rank as one of Europe's largest-ever joint defense projects.

This move illustrates a shared push by Berlin and Rome. They aim to strengthen Europe's military power while deliberately linking rearmament to new European industrial partnerships.

For Prime Minister Meloni, a partnership with Berlin provides crucial political legitimacy. Italy has traditionally swung between moments of European leadership and feeling like an outsider on the edges of the bloc. By aligning closely with Germany, Rome effectively reenters Europe's core decision-making group.

At the same time, Meloni can present herself as both a nationalist leader at home and an indispensable partner in Europe. Her political positions allow her to keep open communication channels with Washington while remaining firmly inside the EU consensus. This is a difficult balancing act that few other European leaders can manage.

Germany, meanwhile, gains political flexibility and a partner more aligned with its focus on broad EU policy priorities. President Macron's ambitious federalist vision for Europe has sometimes alienated more cautious partners within the bloc. Italy offers a pragmatic counterweight for Chancellor Merz. The partnership focuses on competitiveness, migration control, and industrial policy rather than a grand, theoretical redesign of European institutions.

President Macron is not being completely pushed out. France still leads on crucial issues like nuclear deterrence and many diplomatic efforts. Yet the political momentum is visibly shifting. It now lies with national governments willing to prioritize immediate economic competitiveness and security over long-term institutional reform.

The 'Merzoni' partnership faces several major tests. Italy's economy remains fragile with very high public debt. Germany's export-driven economic model struggles amid global economic shifts and competition. Far-right and populist political movements across the continent still challenge the fundamental unity of the EU. Furthermore, deeper defense integration remains politically sensitive in many member nations.

Yet history shows that necessity often drives European integration forward. As crises continue to pile up, cooperation becomes less of an option and more of a requirement for survival.

The real question is whether Europe can move from simply managing one crisis after another to developing a proactive, long-term geopolitical strategy. For now, the unlikely German-Italian partnership of Merz and Meloni suggests that Europe's political map is being redrawn. This is not happening through grand federal visions, but through practical alliances shaped by shared fear, necessity, and opportunity.